Dramatic efficiencies are on the horizon for the real estate industry.

During the last economic evolution, the Industrial Revolution, there was a net gain in employment.

Many jobs did become redundant in both unskilled and skilled labour fields.

For example, mechanized farming wiped out many unskilled labour jobs and the automobile industry wiped out jobs for skilled workers like blacksmiths and saddle makers.

The Industrial Revolution, and capitalism, created many more jobs than it retired, and boosted the output and efficiency, for both individual workers and companies. Mechanized farming and industrial manufacturing led to a higher standard of living, a higher level of consumption, and healthier, longer lives for the North American population.

However, the information and technology revolution will create efficiencies with net losses in employment. As the cost of labour rises, the cost to implement technology begins to be more efficient.

Assembly line workers are already being replaced with robotics, as well as minimum wage workers in fast food restaurants and grocery stores being replaced with self serve computer kiosks.

The printing Industry was devastated in the early 1990’s when desk top publishing was introduced.

When we look at the future of employment in different residential real estate sales and marketing jobs, the future does not seem bright.

Most people who were born in Canada who are under the age of 35 have grown up with the internet and are getting more and more comfortable buying things on line. In five years, everyone under the age of 40 will be comfortable buying online.

The vast majority of real estate buyers will want to shop from home and in the future, technology will allow them to interact directly with the listing agents of different properties for resale.

With 70 percent of residential resale agents specializing in working with purchasers, competition for the few buyers who use traditional methods will be fierce, and many buyers’ agents will be forced out of work.

As technology continues to evolve, sellers will use apps and A.I. technology to replace listing agents, and listing agent specialists will also be devastated by technology.

Using new technology, the listing agents that survive will have to do a higher volume of sales, and it will likely be routine to represent both buyers and sellers, for far less commission.

The future is not any brighter for listing agents and sales people of new homes and condominiums.

Once developers discover a technology that directly and efficiency reaches their target market of buyers without agents, developers will create efficiencies and more likely move in-house and it will be more difficult for listing broker specialists to attain new home and condo projects to sell, and the cooperating commission of 4 percent will likely disappear for the cooperating brokers.

Right now the most important goal of marketing is to drive traffic of qualified buyers to a sales office for an inside agent to present the product and close sales, using tools like a model suite.

Soon the A.I. technology that is used in your home, Alexa and Google Home, will be developed into a virtual sales person for new homes and condos.

It has already been developed for fundraising calls.

One of the major political parties has been using it for more than a year.

The one computer, the virtual salesperson, can call hundreds of people simultaneously.

This puts the whole team of fundraisers out of work, since A.I. technology is much more efficient.

In the not to distant future, a potential buyer will put on virtual reality goggles, at home in front of his computer, and experience the feeling of walking around inside a virtual sales office and model suite and will interact with a virtual, Alexa technology type salesperson in visual, virtual reality form.

This virtual salesperson will be programmed to present the different elements of the project, build rapport with the buyer, and qualify and close the buyer, like a real human being would.

Once this technology is established, it won’t be long before the goggles disappear, and with the next level of technology the A.I. virtual realty will fill the room around the viewer.

The viewer will have the experience of being in the sales office and model suite, and enjoying seamless communication with a virtual salesperson, who is programmed with accurate information on all the fine details of the project, with no more human error.

A virtual architect, construction specialist, lawyer, and mortgage broker could also all be programmed to be available to supply perfectly programmed answers to a buyer’s questions.

The technology allowing a new home and condo buyer to fill out his personal information on an Ipad and for a computer to generate an Agreement of Purchase and Sale from that information, has been available to local GTA Developers since 2010.

Modern buyers can already choose their colours of their new condo online.

It is now routine for many developers not only to have overseas buyers sign agreements digitally by email, but now local buyers visiting the sales office are also signing digitally, on Ipads. No more paper agreements, and condo documents are also now routinely being supplied by email or on a USB stick.

So the future is coming to many professions, outside of the ones we have discussed, whether we like it or not.

AI technology and or robotics will potentially replace teachers, chefs, manufacturing workers, government workers, firemen, maids, accountants, architects, retail salespeople, logistics workers, and a frightening number of other working class and professional jobs in Canada.

How is China set to adapt?

The effect of China’s one child policy will result in a drastic drop in population beginning in 2029. As the jobs in China disappear, so will the population, due to the result of a low birthrate and an abundance of male babies being born over decades. China will adapt much better to the Information and Technology Revolution than Canada will.

In contrast, the healthy immigration policy that has driven Canada’s success will no longer be fueled by an ever expanding supply of good jobs.

If employment for the working class and professionals is devastated by AI technology and robotics, unemployed people will be unable to consume the amount of goods and services that they have since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.

There could be a prolonged period of economic adaption to the Information and Technology Revolution in Canada, that could last for a decade or a generation. In life we must adapt or perish. Is the solution for us all to quickly invest in new technology and join the big winners of the future? It might look like the solution.

Just as it did for the VCR Industry, the new technology Investors will saturate the market, and make fortunes, until the fast changing A.I. information and technology revolution makes them extinct, and if they are not very careful, they will lose everything with the birth of the replacement technology.So perhaps the way to adapt and survive in an age of dynamically changing technology, is for us all to proceed with caution and give ourselves time to adapt.

Our children will need to think carefully about which careers will survive the information and technology revolution.

The Information and Technology Revolution will potentially have a devastating affect on future employment and the Canadian economy.

Perhaps we need to develop the vision, to avoid paving the road to our future, from leading us off the end of a high cliff.

Source: https://www.theepochtimes.com/

By Scott Davie
Originally published in The Epoch Times.

The year 2018 will be remembered as a year when the pre-construction condo market returned to more of a normal market in sales volume, with a steep rise in prices.

The current year 2019 will likely continue with more of a normal volume of sales, with less available inventory, and steadily rising prices.

The market was cooled from its red hot sales volume by a number of upward pressures on the price to build new condos.

The carbon tax drove up the cost of materials, the U.S. tariffs drove up the cost of steel further, the cost of labour went through the roof, development charges increased dramatically, and the cost of developable land skyrocketed.

Many developers are having major problems scheduling trades, due to the high number of GTA high rise housing starts.

Developers are being cautious releasing new projects and this will continue into 2019.

A reduction in available inventory caused by less new GTA high-rise projects being released in 2019 will allow the public to become accustomed to the new world of pricing, caused by the spike in building and development costs.

Despite healthy sales volumes, there is an overwhelming pent- up demand to buy that is being held back by negative influences on consumer confidence.

Consumer confidence is being hurt by the banking Industries 8 aggressive increases to regulations over the last two years, like the latest 2 percent stress test, that make qualifying for a mortgage very difficult for many real estate buyers.

New home and condo buyers will have to drive to affordability, choose properties in locations like Milton, Grimsby, and Caledon, or buy less expensive properties than are ideal.

There are a number of other negative drivers of consumer confidence like the uncertainty from Brexit, the October 2019 Canadian election, and the provincial-federal government carbon tax battle, just to name a few.

The IMF projects confidence in both global GDP and U.S. GDP in 2019.

When the United States does well economically, Canada tends to follow with good economic growth.

The Ontario government is changing direction economically, attempting to reduce taxes, regulation on businesses, and energy costs.

As Real Estate prices continue to rise with economic prosperity, it will become more and more unaffordable for new and existing Real Estate consumers to buy what they want.

Downtown new condo prices have attained the million dollar milestone for 500 sq. ft. in 2018, with the example of suites at King Toronto reaching $2,000 per sq. ft.

The reality is that the rate new buyers can save cannot keep up with price increases.

If a million dollar new condo appreciates 10 percent in a year, the average buyer cannot save $100,000 in one year.

The message is that we should expect a healthy volume of new condo sales and a steady increase in price in 2019.

Now is the time to buy because in the future, buying may no longer be an option.

To register for Edge Tower 2, click on http://solmar.ca/mississauga-condo.php.

Source: https://www.theepochtimes.com/

Resale residential, new single family homes, and new high-rise condo markets were all selling at record prices and at record velocity in the first quarter of the year, until the Provincial Government announced the 16 point “Ontario Fair Housing Plan”.

The 16 point plan included:

• a 15% tax on some foreign buyers;
• potential future legislation to discourage assignments of new condo contracts;
• a new vacant homes tax, and
• tax benefits to Developers of new rental buildings, among other things.

Although the elements of the plan themselves were benign, the complexity of the plan had a devastating effect on short term consumer confidence in the resale and new, single family home markets, with the 905 belt of the GTA being hit the hardest.

The volume of sales in these two markets suddenly skidded to a stop as buyers, who had been frustrated with an extreme shortage of available properties, resulting in multiple offers, and sale prices often $100,000 to $300,000 over asking price, decided to wait and see how the Plan would affect the prices.

So the wait and see approach of buyers, not the elements of the Plan itself, caused a price correction and a record slow volume of sales in the resale and new, single family homes market, with the 905 belt being hit the hardest.

Homeowners in the 905 average home price range of $750,000 to $1,250,000 suffered a $100,000 to $300,000 loss of their personal wealth due to the devastating effects of the Ontario Fair Housing Plan.

The Ontario “Fair” Housing Plan.

The downtown, resale condo market felt a minor affect, with condos taking a small reduction on price and still selling fairly quickly, at a normal pace rather than the pre Plan pace.

The sale of new condos however, were unaffected by the announcement of the Plan.

Although there were not many launches during the summer months, new condos sold at a record pace and a record price throughout the year.

New condos were selling so quickly that both the public and top selling Real Estate Agents were complaining that they could not get access to units before the buildings were selling out.

So the new condo market was too hot, the resale and new, low rise markets were too cold, and downtown resale condo market was just right.

In my 3 decades practicing Real Estate, I have never seen a year like this.

The GTA sales numbers for residential new construction properties have been announced by Altus Group.

The GTA has experienced its best year ever with both the record 36,429 new condo sales and the record average price of $716,000.

The GTA has experienced its worst year in over 10 years in single family new home sales with only 7,714 sales at an average price of $1.23 Million.

As we look to the 2018 Real Estate market, the topic of conversation often leads to the new “stress test” requirement for Applicants putting more than 20% down on new mortgages with federally regulated institutions.

The reality is that the “stress test” is the latest of 8 policies from the banking Industry that make it more difficult for first time buyers, seniors, and average Canadians to qualify for the amount of mortgage that they could traditionally afford.

The reason I say the banking Industry is that the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) is independent from the government, made up of people from the banking Industry, funded by the banking Industry, and is mandated to protect the interests of the “stakeholders” (the owners) of the banks not the borrowing public.

The 8 policies range from the shortening of the length of the amortization of mortgages, the elimination of equity mortgages, to the stress test for Applicants putting less than 20% down on new mortgages.

Since this new stress test on all new mortgages does not apply to refinancing an existing mortgage, consumers will be less likely to change banks at renewal time.

So the new stress test will lessen competition between the banks with existing customers.

The new stress test will lower the amount consumers can borrow so a portion of the market will buy smaller, cheaper properties than they would like, or they will “drive to affordability” by moving to places like Milton or Guelph.

The new stress test will not stop many people from buying.

In fact, more people than ever will be buying Real Estate in the GTA in 2018 as the federal government is set to increase immigration by 100,000 this year.

Under the previous Federal Government, just over half of the current 240,000 new Canadians choose the GTA as their home thanks to the rich environment of good jobs and social programs, and this number will dramatically increase again in 2018.

Immigration has long been known as one of the factors heating up demand in the GTA Real Estate market.

Record low interest rates, which are expected to remain low in the midterm, is the other major driver of demand.

According to the OSFI website, they predict that interest rates may go up or down in the midterm.

There is a shortage of residential, serviced land that is zoned for either high rise or single family homes so GTA Developers cannot keep up with the demand.

Economics 101 tells us that too much demand and not enough supply to meet that demand cause prices to increase.

So the single family home buyers will return to the market when they realize that the sky is not falling, and as they do, the resale and new, single family home prices will return to pre Ontario Fair Housing Plan level.

The faster they return the faster the prices will bounce back.

The long term confidence we experienced in 2017 that resulted in record new condo sales and prices will remain through 2018, and we should see similar record numbers again, with a 5% to 10% rise in average prices.

R. Scott Davie, President of Davie Real Estate Inc., is a leader in the sales and marketing of Pre construction Real Estate, and has been an advisor to many of the GTA’s top Developers.

The most recent drama in the Real Estate Industry was the cancellation of another preconstruction residential condominium – this one being in Vaughan.

A majority of the public believes that because the developer sold the condominiums for an average price of about $550 per square foot, and other comparable condominiums in the area have recently been selling for as much as $800, there must be foul play involved in the decision to cancel the project.

As a veteran New Condominium Sales and Marketing Manager who has experienced the disappointment of having a project cancelled after the sales were firm, I can report from experience that when you factor in the costs of bringing a project to market twice, no Developer would be motivated to cancel a project for this reason. These costs consist of both time and tangible costs, as well as the damage to the developer’s reputation.

So what caused the problem? There are three components that together, potentially caused this cancellation.

The first was the time it took to change the zoning from industrial (employment land) to high density residential. Despite the lengthy 18 month (or longer) process, many Developers still sell their condo projects before the zoning is in place and successfully go on to complete their projects.

The second component was the recent spike in labour costs to build new homes and condos. The Toronto area has experienced record numbers of sales over the last few years and this year we are experiencing a new record number of high rise housing starts. According to CMHC, Toronto area high rise condo housing starts have tripled to 63,396 units in the latest year over year figures released in February. One of Canada’s top Developers told me during a recent brunch meeting that he has heard of concrete formers, the people who pour the concrete into the forms to build condos, who normally make about $100,000 annually, currently making as much as $250,000 annually. So, the trades have more work than they can do, and this increases what they can charge Developers.

Source: January 2018 Preliminary Housing Start Date, Market Analysis Centre, CMHC & March 2018 Preliminary Housing Start Date, Market Analysis Centre, CMHC

The third potential catalyst will likely surprise you. The cost of the materials used to build condos, which include steel, concrete, glass, and drywall, has also unexpectedly spiked. This is the catalyst that the accountants that do the budgeting for the developers were unable to predict. The cost to manufacture or process these materials is very energy intensive. It also takes a lot of energy to transport these materials to market.

So just a few short months after it was announced, the Provincial Government implemented its version of the Ontario Carbon Tax on January 1, 2018. The result of the “Climate Change Mitigation and Low Carbon Economy Act” is a tax on Ontario providers of electricity, natural gas, and fuel which is automatically passed on to Ontario consumers of energy. The Provincial Government refers to it as a Cap and Trade Program and, according to Ontario.ca e-laws, the layers of regulation and tax in the legislation were rewritten 6 times in the year preceding January 1st of this year, in order to meet or exceed mutual Provincial and Federal Government targets.

Ontario already had the most expensive energy in North America, and is no longer a manufacturing based economy largely due to this fact. As a result, the increasing cost of manufacturing and transporting the building materials, unpredicted by accountants, played a very major catalyst in causing the cancellation of the Vaughan condo.

However, it was likely the combination of a cumbersome zoning change process, and the unexpected spike in labour and building costs that caused the problem. The dramatic spike in costs diminished the profitability of the building to the point that the banks would no longer finance the project. Even if a developer had the means to self-finance, it would only compound the loss, so it would not make financial sense for the developer to do so.

It is important to understand that if the property had been zoned, and construction had begun shortly after the quick sell out, based on prices at that time, this project would have been successfully built.

So what is the solution?

Other than the obvious streamlining of the zoning process and cancellation of the carbon tax, we need to address the labour shortage. One method would be to return to a more merit based immigration system and bring in more skilled labour to build Toronto area condos. Despite a recent spike in Canadian immigration from about 250,000 to 350,000 new immigrants annually, we do not have enough skilled workers for high rise construction.

In addition, there are modern construction materials that are cheaper and do not require the same skilled labour. Prefabricated concrete construction uses dramatically less concrete due to hollow channels, is much quicker to build with, and requires little on-site labour since it is put in place by a crane. Prefabricated zip panels can also be used for interior and exterior walls, are also installed with a crane, and save time, and labour costs.

Consequently, using more modern building materials and building methods would take the pressure off the shortage of skilled labour needed to build Toronto area condominiums. The outcome of the upcoming provincial election could decide the fate of the Ontario Carbon Tax, as other Provincial Premiers do not intend to implement it, a potential new Premier may have the ability to cancel it.

Another tip would be for both the Developers and the buyers of Toronto condominiums, to proceed when zoning is in place to minimize the risk of unforeseen obstacles.

Did I mention that my latest project, Edge Towers, is beginning construction on Tower 1 and that we are about to launch Tower 2 with preliminary zoning approvals in place?

The way Toronto broker Scott Davie sees it, 2017 was a year of extremes for the GTA real estate market.

“It was a hot year and a cold year, a great year and a bad year, all at the same time,” Davie Real Estate Inc.’s president and broker of record tells Epoch Times.

“In my three decades in the industry I’ve never seen anything like it.”

Things started well for resale and new single family homes and new high-rise condos, all of which sold at record prices and at record velocity in the first quarter of 2017.

Then in April the province introduced its Fair Housing Plan, which included a 15 percent tax on some foreign buyers and a vacant homes tax, among other measures. The legislation was aimed at correcting an extreme sellers market that’s been driving up real estate prices.

Suddenly, says Davie, things got bad.

While the longer-term consequences of the Fair Housing Plan remain to be seen, news of the legislation’s introduction alone had a devastating effect on short-term consumer confidence in the resale and new single-family home markets, particularly in the 905 region, says Davie. “It created an unknown and a fear of how it would affect the market.”

Sales of resale and new single family homes “skidded to a stop” as buyers—already frustrated with chronic shortages of available properties leading to multiple offers and average sale prices as much as $300,000 over asking—opted to wait and see how the province’s Fair Housing Plan would affect prices. “Basically that segment of the market stopped dead, causing a big correction,” says Davie.

The GTA ended up having its worst year in over a decade for new single family home sales, with just 7,714 homes sold at an average price of $1.23 million, according to Altus Group.

Yet as the the low-rise market lay temporarily moribund amid a wane in short-term confidence, the GTA’s new-condo market soared. Regionwide, buildings continued to sell out, achieving record prices along the way. The condo market had its best year ever in 2017, with a record 36,429 new-condo sales and a record average price of $716,000, Altus Group reports.

“There was so little confidence in the short-term market but strong confidence in the long-term strength of the market,” Davie says. “So you saw two extremes happening all at once.”

Another Big Year
After 30 years in the real estate business—most recently serving as a senior vice president with Milborne Real Estate—Davie has struck out on his own with the launch of Davie Real Estate.

Peering into this crystal ball, he predicts big things for the new-condo market in 2018 as investors and first-time buyers continue to pursue affordability. At the same time, there’s significant pent-up demand for low-rise homes, and once people realize “the sky isn’t falling” and re-enter that market, Davie says prices should rebound in both resale and pre-construction low-rise segments. “So the next year could be a record one for sales of new single family homes and new condos. The potential is there.”

First up on Davie’s sales slate this year is the initial building at Edge Towers in Mississauga, a 35-storey tower designed by award-winning architect Roy Varacalli (E-Condos, Exhibit, 1 Yorkville). “This is setting a new standard for quality in Mississauga,” says Davie, who notes the Solmar Development project—three towers total at build-out—is luring purchasers with its central and transit-friendly location, within walking distance of Square One Shopping Centre and the future Mississauga-Brampton LRT line.

He foresees record condo sales and price increases for 2018, propelled by ongoing immigration to the GTA. And the condo market’s momentum will continue to be driven by low interest rates and a chronic shortage of developable residential land.

All of it bodes well. Still, Davie is concerned new mortgage stress test requirements will create roadblocks for aspiring buyers. Under the new rules, lenders now apply the stress test to determine if an applicant putting less than 20 percent down on a new mortgage could continue to service that debt in a higher interest rate environment. “This will make it more difficult for Canadians to qualify for the amount of mortgage that they could traditionally afford,” he says.

It won’t stop people from buying, however, Davie makes clear. “They will just buy smaller, cheaper properties than they would like, or they’ll drive to affordability by moving to places like Milton or Guelph.”

Ryan Starr is a Toronto-based freelance journalist.

Source: The Epoch Times

There was a concern from many Real Estate Industry Professionals that Provincial Government intervention designed to help alleviate the high cost of GTA housing could backfire if it was too heavy handed.

The premise being, if there were punitive taxes and regulation introduced that removed a large number of Purchasers from the marketplace quickly, and a balance between supply and demand were forced to happen too quickly, the premium currently being paid due to the imbalance in the market (seen as $100,000 to $300,000 bids over asking price on many Toronto resale homes as an example), could disappear overnight and be seen as a correction in the market.

A correction would traditionally send a shock wave through the marketplace.

Residents would likely be less motivated to buy or sell and dramatically fewer sales would take place until consumer confidence returned.

The good news is that that is not likely the case.

Here is why.

Let’s examine the more significant, of the 16 measures announced in the Ontario Fair Housing Plan by the Ontario Ministry of Finance on Thursday, April 20th.

15% Non-resident Speculation Tax

Real Estate Purchasers that are not citizens, permanent residents, or Canadian corporations will be required to pay, at the time of Purchase, an additional 15% tax.

Foreign Purchasers that become citizens within four years, become permanent residents, or students that study in Canada for two years will qualify to receive a rebate of the tax.

Since about 2% to 3% of new homes and condos are purchased by non-residents, and many will qualify for the rebate, the Non-resident Speculation Tax is not expected to have a significant effect on the market.

Future Legislation to Discourage Assignments

The Provincial Government intends to study and address the practice of flipping new homes and condos. Although there are legitimate reasons to resell a new property before it is built there are many investor/buyers who will consider Assignment as an option to maximize profits. Since Developers require proof of satisfactory financing at the early stage of the Purchase, buyers generally are not able to buy if they cannot afford to close. If the practice of Assigning Agreements to Purchase is heavily taxed, it will not have a significant effect on cooling demand, or lowering prices.

New “Vacant Homes” Municipal Property Tax

Under the new legislation, Municipalities will be permitted to introduce an additional property tax on homes and condos that are vacant with the purpose being to encourage Investors to sell or rent out their properties. If a home owner can afford to have a house or condo sit empty for a significant period of time then they will likely not be phased by having to pay an additional 1% tax, annually. In addition, since this affects a very small group in Toronto (compared to Vancouver), a Vacant Homes Municipal Property Tax will have no effect in cooling market demand or lowering prices.

The Return of Residential Rent Control

The new legislation brings back rent control to all private rental units with an annual cap of 2.5%. Most Landlords do not wish to increase rent to an amount that will be unaffordable to their Tenant. If a Tenant leaves, the apartment or house will likely be empty for one month and there will be a “one month rent” fee to a Real Estate Agent to handle the new rental. So the loss of 2 months rent will likely wipe out the benefits of a rent increase. If a Landlord introduces a large increase in rent they likely have another reason why they need the Tenant to leave. Regardless, the 2.5% Rent Control is reasonable for existing rental properties and newly Purchased rental properties can set their first year base rent at an amount that considers their carrying costs and the free market. Rent Control will not contribute to cooling market demand.

The new negative measures will have little or no effect on cooling the market, or reducing GTA housing prices.

There are positive measures in the “Ontario Fair Housing Plan” that are designed to increase the supply of homes and condos for sale and increase the number of market value and low income rental properties available for rent.

Municipalities will be permitted to:

Tax vacant land that is zoned for residential development, but not being developed, at a higher rate to encourage development;

Reduce lot levies on new build rental apartments; and

Lower property taxes on new build rental apartment buildings.

Under the new legislation the Government will consider converting surplus Provincial lands to a mix of 80% new market value housing and 20% affordable housing.

In the midterm, these measures will have a positive impact on the supply of rentals and a small positive impact on the supply of new homes and condos for sale.

There will be a committee that will study the effectiveness of the new measures and report back to the Government.

There will also be a “New Housing Supply Team” that will have government employees dedicated to identifying barriers to specific development projects by working with Developers and Municipalities to find solutions.

If the “New Housing Supply Team” is successful, the number of applications to the Ontario Municipal Board could be reduced drastically, and more new homes and condos could be available for sale sooner, and without the need for a Developer to recover the large expense associated with that trip to the OMB.

The “New Housing Supply Team”, again, if effective, could have the most impact to increase the supply of new homes and condos for sale, and be the most important of the new measures.

Since the negative measures will have little or no impact on the demand of new homes and condos, and there will be more market value and affordable rentals introduced to the market in the midterm, we can breathe a sigh of relief that there will not be a negative impact on the GTA Real Estate Market due to the “Ontario Fair Housing Plan”.

Prices should continue to rise until more supply is introduced.

Since the increase in supply will be gradual, and spread out over time, the prices will slowly level off when equilibrium between supply and demand returns to the GTA Real Estate market.